As noted about 6 months ago, there have been signals of an incoming recession when unemployment hit an all time low. Among coincident other indicators (such as the inverse yield curve), historically a recession is about 12-18 months off. This means we COULD be about 6-12 months off. What immediately precedes a recession is usually a blow-off top of stocks and traditional equities, wherein “top” obviously means price will take a downturn and “blow-off” meaning a parabolic rise.
The year 2020 has people generally over-exuberant, for no good reason other than a parallel drawn to “hindsight is 20-20.” We have stocks making all time highs, and many are going or have already gone parabolic. Taking a look below with the bonds (weekly) and stock market (daily) side by side where the white dotted lines mark the same time point across both charts, we can see a very obvious bearish divergence in the stock market, and growing strength in the bonds. That means smart money continues to hedge bets.
It is also important to note the effects of the Wuhan virus. One of my good contacts in China tells me that the Chinese government continues to pump money into the Chinese stock market trying to hold it up, and yet currently 50% of businesses are currently closed due to the virus. At some point this is going to stop, and businesses are not making income when transportation is shut down. It seems like the Canton Fair has been closed this year, which is the premier event for Amazon sellers finding new products and the vendors making those products. Isn’t it strange how coincidentally when markets are topping off, there is always news of some war or some catastrophe that happens? How interesting the handful of individuals that own the mainstream media likes to scapegoat such events as a catalyst for doom and gloom. If the Wuhan thing blows over and business goes back to normal, I would be wary that the stage has been set for whatever could be brewing.
It’s no coincidence founders are able to time the tops –
Jeff Bezos sells AMZN shares (two days ago): https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/11/jeff-bezos-sold-4point1-billion-worth-of-amazon-shares-in-past-week.html
Elon Musk does stock offering (today): https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-plots-2-billion-offering-130311465.html
With Tezos, tokenized securities are coming. I’m calling it now where the average person will not be owning one property, they will partially own multiple properties. Marketing will shift away from real estate agents, and be taken on by social media influencers causing anomalies in pricing of individual properties relative to their surrounding neighborhood. If you think remodeling and flipping real estate was lucrative… imagine immediate liquidity in selling partial ownership of properties in the form of tokens right after a large PR event. Forget taking weeks and months of escrow and sitting on a property for years for the traditional real estate cycle.
Fundament Group with >$7 Billion in real estate to tokenize real estate holdings through Tezos: https://www.fintech.finance/01-news/fundament-group-forms-strategic-partnership-with-tezos-foundation-to-develop-digital-securities-infrastructure/
Coinbase continues to jump through hoops laying the groundwork to offer STO’s (security token offerings): https://blog.coinbase.com/in-another-first-coinbase-custody-attains-its-soc-1-and-soc-2-reports-836f836ec60a
Of course it goes without saying, crypto continues to be a hedge against traditional markets alongside gold, and institutions continue to make inroads and form partnerships. $Theta $XTZ $LINK $HBAR $TUBE $MANA $MED