December 24, 2018 – Thoughts on SPX and BTC

Been keeping an eye out for BTC retracement to $3600 for a while now, although with recent bullish bounce from 200 EMA/SMA, may have to re-evaluate target.

BTC Bull targets for $5K and $6K are possible, with decreasing likelihood unless momentum continues to shift. BTC bear targets $3K and $2K are possible, as momentum reverts to bear. Short term bull bounce was expected, and not necessarily a sign of bear market reversal.

More signs of inverse correlation based on candles today between SPX and BTC. SPX is due to rebound to $2600-2700.

If SPX breaks under $2400 support, next one will be at $2000. Looking to transfer remaining bonds to SPX at that time.

Potential short-term scenarios:
SPX bounces to $2600 while BTC retraces to $3600 (more likely).
SPX bounces to $2600 while BTC rallies to $4400 (less likely).

SPX dumps to $2000 while BTC retraces to $3600 (less likely).
SPX dumps to $2000 while BTC rallies to $4400 (more likely).

Potential longer-term scenarios:
SPX rallies beyond $2700 while BTC dumps to $2K.
SPX rallies beyond $2700 while rallies to $5K.

SPX dumps under $2000 while BTC dumps to $2K.
SPX dumps under $2000 while rallies to $5K.

Will be interesting to keep an eye out on the scenarios above to monitor potential inverse correlations.



Also – https://medium.com/altcoin-magazine/what-an-8-billion-dollar-coinbase-valuation-can-tell-us-about-cryptocurrency-markets-c3ce0ba1c155

Summary:

Why An $8 Billion Coinbase Valuation Indicates Cryptocurrencies Are Undervalued And Oversold

While we have seen the market for digital assets shed over 80 percent of itsvalue, certain cryptocurrency companies have seen their valuation increase.

What can this tell us about the cryptocurrency market? The current market capof all cryptocurrencies is about $110 billion.

How can three top cryptocurrency exchanges be worth $20 billion if the entiremarket of the assets they service is only worth $110 Billion?

ICE is worth twice as much as three top cryptocurrency exchanges, but themarket of assets it addresses is worth 200 times the market cap of all cryptocurrencies.

If we examine the hundreds of legitimate cryptocurrency companies that currently exist and the activities of established companies that are developing products and services in the cryptocurrency sector, it becomes increasingly obvious that the valuation of all the major companies in the cryptocurrencysector is worth more than the entire cryptocurrency market itself.

For Coinbase to have a future, the digital asset market must have a future, and for Coinbase to be counted among the most valuable startups means the future for digital assets is a bright one.

Most investors in cryptocurrencies do not understand the market or the technology, and this feeds the already emotional nature of markets and especially new markets.